Methodology
Cali-Split assigns each of California's 58 counties to one of two hypothetical states and compares them using authoritative, pre-processed data. Sources and methods are below. This is an educational thought experiment, not affiliated with any campaign or government.
Data sources & vintages
| Group | Fields | Source | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographics | population, median age, race/ethnicity, % bachelor's+ | U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year | 2023 |
| Demographics | urban / rural population | U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census (DHC, table P2) | 2020 |
| Economy | median household income, poverty, labor force / unemployment | U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year | 2023 |
| Economy | county GDP (all-industry total) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, CAGDP2 | 2023 |
| Economy | state GDP (national comparison) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, SAGDP2 | 2023 |
| Government & fiscal | federal funding received | USAspending.gov (spending by recipient county) | FY2024 |
| Government & fiscal | U.S. House seats / electoral votes | U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census apportionment | 2020 |
| Land & misc | land area | U.S. Census Bureau, cartographic boundary files (ALAND) | 2023 |
| Land & misc | largest cities | ACS place populations + curated city→county mapping | 2023 |
| Land & misc | national parks, coastline (coastal flag) | Curated (National Park Service designations; Pacific-fronting counties) | 2024 |
How the numbers are computed
- Additive: Population, land area, GDP, federal funding, counts: summed.
- Derived: GDP per capita, density, unemployment %, poverty %, % bachelor's+: computed from summed components (exact).
- Weighted: Median household income: computed by summing each county's household income-bracket counts (Census B19001) and interpolating the median of the combined distribution (accurate, not a median-of-medians). Median age: population-weighted average of county medians (approximation).
- Apportionment: California's 52 U.S. House seats are divided between the two new states proportional to population (min 1 each); EV = seats + 2.
- Ranking baseline: 49 non-California states (as-is) + the two new states = 51.
Preset splits
- State of Jefferson: State B is the cluster of far-northern, mostly rural counties historically associated with the State of Jefferson secession movement; many have passed declarations of support. State A is the rest of California.
- North vs. South California: State B is the ten traditional Southern California counties lying south of the Tehachapi Mountains (the 1956 'Tehachapi line' definition used by past north/south split proposals). State A is the northern remainder.
- Coastal vs. Inland: State B is the fifteen counties that front the Pacific Ocean; State A is the inland remainder. Captures the coastal/urban vs. inland/rural divide.
Metrics not included
- state tax revenue by county: No authoritative county-of-origin source.
- agricultural output: USDA NASS QuickStats requires a separate API key; deferred for v1.
- top industries: Requires per-county GDP-by-industry breakdown (heavy BEA fetch); deferred for v1.
No county values required estimation or gap-filling — all 58 counties have complete source data for every included metric.